1.Terrorism. Unfortunately, I feel that the Philippines is overdue for a serious terrorist event. I have a feeling that we will see something in this area in 2009. Over the past decade or more, there have been a number of serious threats that have been thwarted by the Philippines Government, this year things might not be so lucky. I am not talking about a hand grenade thrown at a bus terminal where people are injured. I feel that the Philippines is overdue for a serious attack that will leave at least 100 people dead. Most likely, an event like this would happen in Manila or somewhere in Mindanao, my feeling is Manila, because it is a more target rich place. I hope that I am incorrect on this, but I think that the odds are in favor of some kind of attack like this impacting the Philippines.
2.Charter Change. The Philippines is gearing up to be a real battle ground in the fight to change the Constitution in 2009. Elections are scheduled to take place in 2010, and a lot of politicians who are facing term limits would love to change the constitution to allow for either longer terms in office, or additional terms. However, the public is strongly opposed to Charter Change, and a battle is looming on this front. A lot of indicators are showing that many politicians are targeting 2009 as the year to put all of this up for a vote. The public won’t stand for it, though, and this could lead to political unrest. If the politicians push this too far, it could even lead to another EDSA style action by the people. Keep a close eye on this one.
3.Presidential Politics. As I said in #2 above, 2010 is election year in the Philippines. A lot of people are surprised that Gloria Arroyo as remained this long as President (I predict, BTW, that she will hold onto power until her term ends in 2010), and in 2009 the race for President in 2010 will start to clarify. My prediction here is that if the Charter Change movement plays out as it seems to be looking, a lot of politicians will be exposed for who they really are, and that may damage Presidential hopes for a number of these people. My feeling is that some non-traditional people will emerge as “Presidentiables” in 2009. I think that at least one religious leader will emerge as a Presidential Candidate in 2009. Also, look for a businessman step into the race. Trapo’s (Traditional Politicians) may fade, and leave the race to non-traditional hands. This could be the first step toward moving the Philippines away from corruption, and more toward stability and more democracy.
4.Economics. The world will continue to spiral into economic turmoil in 2009, and I think that things will not improve next year, and possibly for several more years. However, the Philippines will remain relatively unscathed by the downturn that the world will be facing. There will be a slowdown in the Philippines, but growth will continue, albeit at a slower pace, and a recession (or depression) here will be avoided. In fact, as things spiral lower in the rest of the world, the Philippines may actually find ways to dominate. This would particularly happen in areas like outsourcing, call centers, bpo, and other such activities.
5.Readdressing Lingual Education. With activities in business areas like call centers thriving in the Philippines, the Philippines will quickly find drastic shortages in it’s available labor pool. English speakers will be needed to fill these types of jobs, and they are quickly running out in the Philippines. This will cause further emphasis on teaching adequate English skills in the schools here. Possibly, legislation will be passed in this area in 2009. With or without the passing of legislation, this is a topic that will become more broadly discussed in the Philippines this coming year.
6.Retirement & Expat Destination. With the United States and most of the world facing economic turmoil, a lot more people from these countries will start looking at becoming expats and living in other parts of the world. The Philippines will eventually benefit from this. We probably won’t start to see this too much in 2009, but the foundation will be laid for such a move. As more and more people in the developed world start to see that opportunities are limited where they are, they will start looking at making changes in their lives, and more and more of these people will start looking at moving to places like Mexico or the Philippines for a better lifestyle. This will eventually lead to the realization that in underdeveloped countries, there are many opportunities to earn a living, and a better lifestyle to boot. As this mindset develops, it will actually become a political issue in the United States, and lead to legislation in this regard.
7.Mindanao Issue. With the Ancestral Domain issue blowing up politically in 2008, things are ripe for change in Mindanao starting in 2009. Right now, the common thinking would be that war is at hand in Mindanao. However, it is at times like this when Peace can be achieved more easily. There may be some blow-ups in the process, but such events may lead toward more urgency among the people talking peace. This could lead to a settlement between the Philippine Government and the Moro Islamic Liberation Front. It’s hard to know for sure what will happen, but I think we can all rest assured that something will happen - either a turn for the worse or the better. Mindanao is at a crossroad right now. In my mind, there are three possible paths for Mindanao. Firstly, battles, shootings and such could increase and lead to lawlessness in Mindanao. Second, such actions as mentioned previously could actually make peace more critical for both sides, leading to a further agreement, and a path toward ultimat peace. Third, a totally unconventional solution could be found by Mindanaoans themselves, leaving the Government totally out of it. The Mindanao Independence movement has grown a lot stronger over the past 5 years or so.
8.Internet Business Use. Businesses in the Philippines are starting to understand that they can benefit from proper use of the Internet. Have you noticed that Philippine companies are even advertising on big sites like Facebook now? It’s true. This will gain steam in 2009, and we will start seeing the seeds of this happen in Philippine business. We may actually start seeing Philippine businesses answer e-mails and moving toward dominating markets on the Internet!
9.Broadband Availability. The availability of broadband internet has improved greatly in the past 8 years that I have lived here. However, we have been seeing speeds like 200 to 300 Kbps. In the past months, we are starting to see companies experimenting with 1, 2 or 3 Mbps offerings, and I’ve even heard of some companies offering as much as 10 Mbps to home users! This will become more prevelant in 2009, and by the end of 2009 a 1 Mbps connection from your home will become more or less the standard for those with broadband.
10.Pull back of US commitments. Over the past Century, we have seen the United States support the Philippines financially in many ways. The USA provides much of the military infrastructure that the Philippines uses, and also funds many programs for the Philippines. I believe that in 2009 we will start seeing this support start to fade. We may not see drastic cutbacks in such aid/support, but I think that the groundwork will be laid in 2009 for future cutbacks. The reason for such cutback is twofold. Firstly, the United States is facing troubled economic times, and needs to spend more money domestically, and that means less for foreign spending. Secondly, President Obama ran on promises of pulling back militarily from many parts of the world, and aiding the Philippines will probably be one of the things that will be cut.
